Through the combination of very high government debt, asset bubbles in the economy and bad demographic trends — with baby boomers retiring before the millennial generation is in full economic bloom — weakness has formed. Bitcoin has become a leading indicator for the market and, if the cryptomarket has peaked, then stocks will follow suit in roughly two months; bitcoin has been roughly cut in half since it topped out in April.
Stock market momentum is up, but fundamentals have weakened, which Dent says historically is a sign of the end of a cycle. Put it all together and “the upside is limited [but] the downside is somewhere between 65 and 80% on stocks,” Dent says, noting that the first whack from the crash he sees happening “is going to be 50% in two to three months.”
For some historical context, that would put us in freefall conditions most famously seen in market crashes in 1929 or 1987.
But Dent isn’t all bad news, noting “It’s not going to last forever. It’s going to be over by late 2022-23 when the millennials drive us back up, but we need to [let this bubble pass] first.”
What makes Dent’s forecast an outlier is that he brings all of that negativity under one roof. But in asking chief economists, market strategists and other experts about their biggest fears, the concerns Dent mentioned have all been someone else’s bugaboo. So has a basic increase in interest rates and inflation and more.